The Threshold Of Uncertainty
Early in projects, even before the first prototype is up and running, you know what the product must do, what it will cost, and, most problematic, when youâ€™ll be done. Independent of work content, level of newness, and workloads, thereâ€™s no uncertainty in your launch date. Itâ€™s etched in stone and the consequences are devastating.
A zero tolerance policy on uncertainty forces irrational behavior. As soon as possible, engineering gets something running in the lab, and then doesnâ€™t want to change it because thereâ€™s no time. The prototype is almost impossible to build and is hypersensitive to normal process variation, but these issues are not addressed because thereâ€™s no time. Everyone agrees itâ€™s important to fix it, and agrees to fix it after launch, but that never happens because the next project is already late before it starts. And the death cycle repeats project after project.
The root cause of this mess is the mistaken porting of manufacturingâ€™s zero uncertainly mindset into design. The thinking goes like this â€“ lean and Six Sigma have achieved magical success in manufacturing by eliminating uncertainty, so letâ€™s do it in product design and achieve similar results. This is a fundamental mistake as the domains are fundamentally different.
In manufacturing the same product is made day-in and day-out â€“ no uncertainty; in product design no two product development efforts are the same and thereâ€™s lots of stuff thatâ€™s done for the first time â€“ uncertainty by definition. In manufacturing thereâ€™s a revision controlled engineering drawing that defines the right answer (the geometry and the material) â€“ make it like the picture and itâ€™s all good; in product design the material is chosen from many candidates and the geometry is created from scratch â€“ the picture is created from nothing. By definition thereâ€™s more inherent uncertainty in product design, and to tighten the screws and fix the launch date at the start is inappropriate.
Design engineers must feel like thereâ€™s enough time to try new things because new products that provide new functionality require new technologies, new materials, and new geometries. With new comes inherent uncertainty, but there are ways to manage it.
To hold the timeline, give on the specification and cost. Design as fast as you can until you run out of time then launch. The product wonâ€™t work as well as youâ€™d like and it will cost more than youâ€™d like, but youâ€™ll hit the schedule. A good way to do this is to de-feature a subassembly to reduce design time, and possibly reduce cost. Or, reuse a proven subassembly to reduce design time â€“ take a hit in cost, but hit the timeline. The general idea â€“ hold schedule but flex on performance and cost.
It feels like sacrilege to admit that somethingâ€™s got to give, but itâ€™s the truth. Youâ€™ve seen how it goes when you edict (in no uncertain terms) that the timeline will be met and thereâ€™ll be no give on performance and cost. It hasnâ€™t worked, and it wonâ€™t â€“ the inherent uncertainty of product design wonâ€™t let it.
Accept the uncertainty; be one with it; and manage it. Itâ€™s the only way.
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